Washington, DC — NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook, released Thursday, October 15th, shows how El Niño will likely influence the upcoming winter months (December 2026 through February 2027). Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across much of the northern United States, including Northwest Iowa. According to the seasonal temperature outlook, our area has a 50-60% chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures. NOAA classifies this as “Likely Above.” Areas with probabilities below 50% are classified as “Leaning Above.”

On the precipitation side, Northwest Iowa has a 33-40% chance of seeing above-normal precipitation this winter, which NOAA classifies as “Leaning Above” normal. The Seasonal Drought Outlook, valid from October 15th, 2026, through January 31st, 2027, shows no drought concerns for Northwest Iowa or anywhere else in Iowa. The outlook also indicates drought improvement and removal in areas west of the Interstate 29 corridor.

The next update to NOAA’s seasonal outlook will be released on November 19th. We will also get additional insight from State Climatologist Justin Glisan early next month when we review October’s weather conditions.